Some said” When the currecny of your country getting stronger,you are getting richer”, is that true in all situation?
China’s yuan is getting stronger,but:
1)That has made Chinese-made products more expensive overseas while shrinking the yuan~denominated value of profits from exports.
2)The stronger yuan is squeezing China-based exporters, including multinationals, at a time when they already are wincing at surging costs for labor, energy and materials.
3)A stronger yuan makes imports of key commodities like crude oil less costly in local terms. But for some industries, the foreign exchange losses are outstripping the gains.
4)The more exports, the bigger the losses. Some of the exporters even considering giving up selling to foreign markets that trade in US dollars.
Even I am not working in China, I can feel the big impact of the weakening US dollar, because I hold a lots US dollar, shit~
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You dare to hold US$, my salute to you. I clear every dollar that I received instantly. It is obvious that US$ is moving toward US$1/RM2.5. Till next global enonomics crisis, not many experts foresee US$ stands any chance to recover its ground. Even the day did come, with strong EUR and current US worldwide reputation, I don't expect US$ can be the dominant currency again.
WHEN THE ENVIRONMENT ISN'T IN FAVOUR OF YOU, SUIT YOURSELF TO IT.
"When the currency of your country getting stronger, you are getting richer" - there is no definite or general answer. It depends on your positioning.
Currency is a double-sided blade. When it is strong, there are winners, there are losers. When it is weak, there are still winners, there are still losers.
My comments on your points - bear in mind this is only applicable to Chinese exporters:
1. Your point did applied to Chinese-made products. However, we shall think positively since RMB will continuously strengthen and nobody can stop it.
Today's Chinese-made products generally are labelled as "VERY CHEAP BUT VERY LOW QUALITY". Compared to high quality products, Chinese-made products can be regarded as bamboo chopstick vs luxurious chopstick. It is cheap, cheap = short life span, i.e. don't expect any quality.
Why this is happening? "Competition" is the major reason. Instead of invest R&D capital and build-up product image, a lot of manufacturers in China choose an easy way - fast setup, standardised product, minimum quality control, no brand............. Since the costs are relatively lower and nearly zero initial capital burden (this is mainly applicable to Chinese local manufacturers), you have only 1 marketing strategy - cost leadership. Lowest costs + minimum margin = maximum sales.
Stronger Yuan for longer years will eliminate this group of unhealthy players out of the market. You cannot attack at wide range, you need to identify your cluster target and segmentation marketing will be your only choice.
Secondly, China was continuously accussed for its superb international trade surplus. China wins its chance to bring in stabilisation. Furthermore, a stronger "CONSUMPTION" of world products did enhance China's global market influence.
2. Basically this is the repetition of your point 1. Those can sustain the challenges will be the survivers, simple theory.
3. Your first statement may not be applicable for general commodities, especially crude oil. Why crude oil can stand at US$116 / barrel? Chinese buyers' "ridiculous" bidding in crude oil future market plays a heavy role. Of course, Indian and other developing countries players did the same. The stronger is the developing country's currency, more severe will this problem be. Your second statement is the repetition of your point 1 again.
4. Your statement is totally misleading. You didn't loss when you export more, it is your margin which is diminishing. You have 2 choices - sell more at current US$ price or sell less at current RMB price. This may not be absolute negative. Same comment as my reply to your point 1.
Trading currency is depending on buyer and seller bargaining power. Exporter cannot decide it especially Chinese-made products are in very weak bargaining position. The only reason that both buyer and seller choose for alternative currency is due to high FOREX risk attached to US$. No player likes risk, so this is normal. When everybody sell their US$, US$ will be weaker and weaker. This goes on till global economics restall worldwide confidence on US$. Anyway, there is nothing surprising.
Stronger RMB is an opportunity to China to transform its products from "CHEAP + LOW QUALITY" to "REASONABLE PRICE + REASONABLE QUALITY" or even better. Who knows? God bless Chinese manufacturers.
All the above are relating to exporters.
For other entities, stronger RMB is warmly welcomed. When Chinese can spend more out of China, it wil be something good for Chinese.
As a normal investor,majority will have same action like you~clear every dollar instantly.
As a smart investor,we need to think further.Give a quote of Warren Buffet “We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful”. In stock market,the winner always the monority
"It is obvious that US$ is moving toward US$/RM2.5"--> I only can agree with you when It become a history.
There is a high possibility that the US$ will not be the World’s key currency 50years from now,but over the next 5 to 10years,it will remain as the key currency. The dollar’s depreciation doesn’t mean the dollar will lose its position of the World’s key currency.
Comment on your point 1
Yes,you are right,nobody can stop the strengthen of RMB,but somebody can control it. China needs control the gain of RMB.As we know,China’s exports have jumped more than tenfold overpast 15 years. Without control the strengthen of RMB, China may suffer serious imbalance between import & export.
You just go to grab around your house,how much things are chop with “made in China”? Maybe your girl friend also in the category,haha~
How old are the products? Short life span?Cheap?Low quality? Can be said base on your luck also. China overtook Japan as the world’s third largest exporter, if Chinese-made products are low quality&short life span, how it can boost so fast? I can only say Chinese-made products neither low quality nor short life span, but is chep. Cheap = cheap labour cost.
"Bamboo chopstick VS luxurious chopstick" --> luxurious chopstick maybe can show your pride with the high quality but can make you become more stronger/rich?
Fashion = short life span ; If as you said is correct,it means Chinese-made product are most suitable for women who chasing after fashion,save cost. Just buy Chinese-made product to pamper your girl friend if she unable to different the quality,haha~
I give 2 examples to prove the quality of China’s product (Chinese-made product):
(i) Shenzhou V(Chinese manned spacecraft)~the successful flight already raise/prove the profile of China Technology.
(ii)OICA announced Chery has entered the phase of creating world famous brand,not only Chery is cheap but due to the quality and brand~
Comment on point 3
Do you know why they want bidding on future market?
(i) Worrying of short supply in future
(ii)Same situation as you~scaring of weakening US$
Comment on point 4
"Your statement is totally misleading. You didn't loss when you export more, it is your margin which is diminishing"--->Please read my sentence carefully on point 3"for some industries, the foreign exchange losses are outstripping the gains =the more exports,the bigger losses"
Is there any reason for someone to tie all the capital, let it depreciate over next 5 ~ 10 years and wait for it to recover? How about the Opportunity Loss? You hold your US$ for 10 years, how much you will lose which you can invest in other portfolio?
Warren Buffet's theory doesn't mean you shall hold the depreciating share/currency since the very first day. Don't be misled. As a conclusion, he meant "BUY LOW, SELL HIGH", not "HOLD HIGH, HOLD LOW, SELL WHEN YOU SEE SOME HISTORICAL DATA".
Till time has came, today's US$ can be exchanged for more RM and make extra RM in other portfolio, then come back to exchange for even more US$ when the majority market generally lost their confidence on US$.
Investment is a "GUESSWORK", not to talk history. My job is to hedge US$/RM when it is staying at 3.8 and our observation concluded that the pegging will be cancelled soon. Same theory applied when EUR/RM is only 3.2. Only historician talk history.
Dominant currency = key currency??? Perhaps my english standard is too low if compared to you because I don't know that "dominant" is same as "key". Till USA becomes a poor country, US$ will be key currency, no doubt of this even after 50 years. However, it will not be a dominant currecy anymore. With a wider coverage of EUR acceptance and strong Asian influence, this is out of doubt.
Control??? You mean manipulate the market??? China likes to do so in all aspects but is this right or effective? Tibet case is the latest example. You can manipulate and cheat yourself but who will trust you? The government may apply some policies but it pays a far greater price when the real problem out of your control is coming. Globalisation will take the shield away from Chinese investors. Today's 100 million of share market players in China is the unhealthy product. You can go ahead and manipulate the market where all your reserves will be deployed to maximise croc's profit.
Balancing of import and export shall be achieved through brand build-up, stronger marketing strategy, higher quality + value, more R&D investment and international recognition. It cannot be manipulated by US$100 billion of national reserve. You see Malays in Malaysia as general, this is the result of MANIPULATION.
When we talk about the quality, it shall be compared to the same product class. PROTON has reasonable quality? You can say it is because it can last for 5 years or more. You only sufferred from some noises and need to visit workshop frequently. However, you enjoy much QUALITY? No need to elaborate much on this. Same as Chinese products in general, is it comparable to its product class opponent?
3rd largest? Is it meaningful? How many units have been sold if compared to 4th largest nation and how much profit / product unit? 10,001 pieces of 1 cent are larger than 100 dollars, I agreed. But shall we be proud of 10,001 pieces of 1 cent and adopt same marketing strategy? If you study Chinese product cost elements, you will find out that labour cost alone cannot cover the very high freight cost and the worse part, the middleman commission + profit gap. It is not so simple especially for the capital-intensive industry. Unless you use general worker to be your general manager or you cannot expect too much labour saving. There is saving but it is not a superb dominating saving.
PLEASE STOP ANY RACISM RELATED STATEMENT. If my next girlfriend is from China, I will be proud of her. I am also a Chinese, regardless which country am I residing in.
A luxurious chopstick is not representing any pride. If it is a FSC or ISO certified product, what do you think? In wood related industry, any product with FSC or ISO certification will get a premium on its selling price. Are the customers pay for their pride? Don't under-estimate today's "CONSUMER CIVILISATION". Each extra dollar has its value where it may be tangible or intangible but nobody can deny that the value is there.
China has how many brand? 1 billion? You choose 2 and try to conclude that all Chinese brands are world class brand? By the way, can China produces its major construction project hardened steel? Can China build its olympic stadiums? Can China designs its F1 circuit? Can China export huge number of international standard professional? If you want 2 examples, some African countries also have good presentation. You are comparing China to them? Lastly, who is behind your 2 big projects? You may buy technology and copy, but it only makes you the world number 1 copycat instead of world number 1 industrial nation.
When US$ stays at RM3.80 level, crude oil is averagely staying at US$40 level. Today, the conversion rate is RM3.20, i.e. 16% depreciation where the fuel is triple of its price. You call this FUTURE activity? A zero casualty 6.4 quake in an Indonesia remote area can push up 3 months NYMEX future contract to over US$5 in half day, you call this normal FUTURE activity? It makes me recalled about Carrefour accident in China when thousands of Chinese rush to buy 10% discounted cooking oil and caused several deads. This is not FUTURE activity, this is panic reaction, really really panic. I sell my US$ at today's rate only. If someone offers me a discounted 10% rate, I will keep it for myself. Is crude oil FUTURE shows this tendency?
If you are familiar with Management Accounting and Product Costing, we are calling it as profit diminishing or lower selling price. You cannot call it FOREX loss. Is your GAAP or IFRS calling this a FOREX loss? If your FOREX loss is due to hedging activity or other means, then it is different agenda and cannot be linked to your selling price. Think the generally accepted financial term before you apply it.
Did I mentioned US$ SURE will depreciate over next 5-10years? If I believe US$ can rebound next year, if my “PREDICTION” more accurate than you,then I will be the winner. “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked”
Are you Warren Buffet? You are right,he never encourage to hold the depreciation share/currency. And you are right again,he meant “BUY LOW,SELL HIGH”,since unpeg,US$ already depreciate around 16%, maybe if buy it now can consider as “BUY LOW”,repeat my quote from Warren Buffet" to be greedy only when others are fearful”.
Dominant currency =/= Key currency? We came out from different assholes,grew up at different environment,so if got different definition & understanding of certain words,that’s not a big problem. At the moment, I AM SURE US$ is WORLD’S KEY CURRENCY.
"Till USA becomes a poor country, US$ will be key currency, no doubt of this even after 50 years. However, it will not be a dominant currecy anymore"--> “To worry about tomorrow is to be unhappy today” what for think about 50years?
Control=manipulate? I think our definition really a BIG GAP. Give your another quote “ In my house, I am the boss,my wife is just the decision maker”,from this quote,your wife’s action is consider as control or manipulate? We can control usage of our $ but we cannot manipulate the goods we bought. “Money will buy a pretty good dog but it won’t buy the wag of his tail”,so can you differential the control with manipulate now?
Caught between an appreciating RMB,weaker global demand&rising costs at home,exporters are facing the toughest time in 20years. In the Guangdong area near Hong Kong,about 12,000 exporters are likely to go bankrupt early this year.Can you imaging how big the impact without controlling strengthen of RMB in future market?
You are right,China stock is clearly unsustainable and there’s going to be a dramatic contraction at some point,but the timing remain uncertain.We are unable to forecast when China bubble will burst.I just can say for long term,China will be good investing country due to its strict policies.
“Balancing of import and export shall be achieved through brand build-up, stronger marketing strategy, higher quality + value, more R&D investment and international recognition. It cannot be manipulated by US$100 billion of national reserve”--> Talk is really easy,which country can apply it 100% ?
“You see Malays in Malaysia as general, this is the result of MANIPULATION”--> That is the result of manipulation or PAMPERING? Think twice before comment
Quality I meant in my previous comment mainly point to “HEALTH AND HAPPINESS”.Spending lower amount to get same function products, quality of your pocket/wallet increase. Please do not use Proton as an example,Proton is not qualified as International Brand.As you said,compare the same product class,then just compare Chery to Chevrolet Spark,both categorized as International Brand(I forgot which 2 models are under comparison),most choose Chery due to its cheaper price and good quality.
“But shall we be proud of 10,001 pieces of 1 cent and adopt same marketing strategy?”--> Do you know the meaning of “pile up little sand can make a tower?”
Did my sentence make any sound of racism? I like China girl also,pretty and tame~ I am also Chinese-made product,my grandparents came from China~
I can’t deny ISO is quality proven,but you can’t deny also that ISO make job troublesome. And it just a profit making tools for certain companies.
I cannot list all the China-made product,just do research by yourself if you are interested to know more. I gave 2 examples only want to prove that China got capability to make own brand.
“By the way, can China produces its major construction project hardened steel? -->China is the top producer of steel with about 1/3 world share
Can China build its olympic stadiums?-->Even the Beijing Olympic stadiums known as “bird’s nest”now, I believe it can be a standard stadium in future~ “Rome was not completed in 1 day”
Can China designs its F1 circuit? Can China export huge number of international standard professional?”--> It may happen in future, everyone has boundless potential. I believe China can, just timing problem~
Copycat is a good job.Just need to crank out crude imitation of what’s already popular.It takes no time or thought,and most people don’t care about the difference.And what good is originality if you can’t crank it out! Don’t tell me you buy original CD/DVD/VCD, people might say you are honest and pure, please do not happy with such flattering remark. I am “piracy CD/DVD/VCD/etc” supporter. Imitation is at least 50% of the creative process. If you are capable,you can make it even better than original~
I was very familiar with management accounting and product costing during school time,but that was history. Everyone can be familiar & elaborate a lots of the theory,but HOW EMPTY IS THEORY IN THE ABSENCE OF FACT? Or maybe you are those “IF THE FACT DO NOT FIT THE THEORY,CHANGE THE FACTS”. As a self-employed, I need to say “IF THE THEORY DO NOT FIT HE FACT,CHANGE THE THEORY”~
Of course you have the freedom to hold as many US$ as you have. It is your investment portfolio.
You talked about 50 years later, now you ask me why I bother about 50 years later? As I mentioned, US$ will still be the key currecy, no doubt about it but its dominance will be in doubt.
What is control? Make sure the index is above 6,500 means control? Make sure US$/RMB is above 7.0 means control? Not a manipulation? Don't link to other issue. We talk about financial market now, not 1119 text book.
If you think government's involvement in protecting the market and industry is something right, I cannot challenge, just like I cannot challenge UMNO's "Malay Protection Policy". Whether it is right or not, it is out of my control.
I agree that there is no 100% free market now. However, those apply 90% surely produce far qualified share market investors if compared to those apply 10% of free market strategy. Fortune top 500 told us so.
UMNO wants to ensure 70% of university graduate are Malays. This is not a manipulation? Open your dictionary first. Same theory applicable to Chinese government if they try to undervalue RMB. Pampering? We talk about financial market, not how to take care of the baby, no need to apply it. Whether UMNO leaders are destroying Malay population in order to protect their power or they are pampering their race, I think it is still a big question mark.
If you interview 100 foreigners, how many of them will tell you that they are confident with Chinese-made product because of Chery? How many will tell you that they are afraid of Chinese-made product because of low quality machine, high emission toy or poisoning food? Republic of Central Africa produced world second best quality diamond, are you confident with their industrial product? If you like to open your economy textbook, you will know that buy cheaper and lower quality product isn't equal to HEALTY & HAPPINESS. If the buyer is capable, he/she will not buy Chinese-made product. WHY? If a beggar eats food from dustbin, you think he enjoys it? Of course I try to use a radical example.
It reminds me Korean war. 500,000++ Chinese soldiers and 50,000 US soldiers were killed. Mao went ahead to declare victory. Do you agree? Or someone may think that China has 1.3 billion of population which allows more casualty? Then, what is the value of 1 Chinese life if compared to 1 American life? For me, it is equal. SAME THEORY IS APPLICABLE TO CHINESE PRODUCT AND INDUSTRY. We are equal. Even it may not be equal now, let's move toward a better fairness direction.
Good. At least we have agreed at one point. The father of my grandfather was origined from China as well. If there is no negative perspective, then I am too sensitive.
Troublesome = profit making tool? If 1kg of trouble can give 1.5kg of profit, why not? Profit maximisation shall be the optimum direction, regardless the process is troublesome or not. Unless you are so sort of NGO or non-profit organisation. Eventually, each organisation did employ professionals to handle trouble. So, why don't go for additional trouble and make more profit? By the way, all the certification expects transparency and systematic. You think it is troublesome? I got many certifications for many organisations but I didn't see much trouble. My duty is to ensure profit maximisation, that's all.
I talked about hardened steel, not raw steel. I knew Chinese produced a lot of "raw" materials and sold it to Japan. Then, Japan re-processes and sells back with a price which may be 10 times higher. Perhaps you read this before as well.
Stadium, F1 circuit and professional exporting - will it happens in future? I don't know. Malaysia declares 2020 vision, you believe it? Mao has some "good" visions to make China one of the world richest country. What is the outcome? More than 30 million people killed due to starving and murdering within a decade. Talk is easy, where is the strategy? Tells the world that I am good will make me very good?
I don't know that you encourage Chinese copycat industry. Everybody have different perspective. Chinese copied SIEMENS motor as well. Hopefully this makes you proud. The only problem is that the pirated version can only last for 1/3 of standard SIEMENS life span which costs 1/2 of SIEMENS price. Is it all? Not yet. The production time loss caused by maintenance job itself allows a factory goes ahead and buy several SIEMENS motor. It is your freedom to encourage these activities.
So you are going to change IFRS and GAAP? Please do so. I have code of ethics to follow. Are you doing piracy related business? Or you are Chinese-made product middleman? Wish you all the best
Yes,that is my investment portfolio,thanks for your “GUESSWORK”.
If they are able to manipulate,what happen to the index now? Shanghai Index tumbles around 20% from November 2007. This is because China want to CONTROL the overheat market, but NOT TO MANIPULATE it. Please take note!
Financial market can stand alone without others supporting?Do you think 1119 text book never contribute 1 cent to financial market? Yes,I am VERY SURE a good policy can protecting volatile market. A good policy can help to reduce poverty rate in their country. To boost an economy of a country, we need purchasing power of their citizen. Do you know why China can sustain better during economic crisis on year 1997? This is due to their strict policy and strong Federal Reserve.
Free market sure can attract more investor,but it can also put them in danger.US is a free market, can you see the consequent of the freedom? China is much more conservative if compare to US or Japan, for long term investment, it can give more confident to investors.
Do you know why UMNO wants to set a quota? They want to manipulate university market? NO,they want to protect the useless race. Pampering I meant on my previous comment mainly point to feed luxuriously for certain race.
I never do survey on foreigners. Do you have data to prove/show your result. If you are including yourself as one of the foreigners and give such conclusion,sorry I cannot accept it without fact! Besides, toy coated with lead paint and pet food containminated with melamine,do u think China is the only country need to take responsible? To protect themselves, importer must test of the products they source.Chinese government also needs to play a role in reforming corrupt practices that lead to inspectors turning blind eye to infractions. From your radical example, chinese-made product =food from dustbin, then how much rubbish you are eating a day? Make sense before gave any example.
I never agree that is called as “victory” by sacrified life. For a country, human is their victory and wealth. If you can make your citizen live in health and happy environment,then your country consider as wealthy country.
Did I meant troublesome= profit making tool? Maybe my poor presentation bring the misunderstanding. Do you think only with ISO, the company can consider as profit making company? I made comment of ISO as a profit making tool because of corruption problems. How many company really can get ISO without bribe ?I believe at least 50% get with bribe. Is that mean quality? Maybe for you,that is right. For you,quality can buy by $.
“all the certification expects transparency and systematic”----> I can accept systematic,but never transparency. Tell with sincere,your company really dare to make everything transparency? If do,congratulation,you’re honest and also your company.
"Mao has some "good" visions to make China one of the world richest country. What is the outcome? More than 30 million people killed due to starving and murdering within a decade" -----> Mao can make it,now China on the way to be the world richest country. To achieve something we need sacrificial.But,i don't like such sacrificial.
Please do not compare Malaysia with China, it just like compare an egg with stone.
I am not only support Chinese copycat, I support all the copycat. Save time to think but just need to modify. I did mention before,to buy Chinese-made product,sometime base on your luck also. This kind of luck also apply to original product. Imitation can produce either a poor or better product.
I won’t go to change IFRS or GAAP, but we can fine-tune the theory. DON’T OBEY WITHOUT THINKING!World is turning every second,scientist fine-tune their theory everyday, even the Gravity theory of Einstein still under adjustment. We need adjustment for optimal performance and effectiveness.
Please do not let me find your name in my customer list since you are not copycat supporter,haha~
I prefer if you call it “forecast”. This sounds little professional.
You know why China A & B Index can come to today’s level? You know China B Index trading stopped everyday in the very first few months because all share prices shot above the ceiling limit? Why there is no control at the time?
During past few years, you know how many times Chinese government encourages share trading through stamp duty reduction? Through Chinese-made good news? Through ridiculous tax relief to Taiwanese investor? Through National Reserve clean sweeping?
Before 1997, Malaysian index also being manipulated (control in your language). One attack can push 1,500 to 200. Is there manipulation in between? Or so-called control too much till all market players have zero confident onto the national share?
Long term policy is the generally accepted minimum interference to free market. Index will continuously stay high when players have confidence by themselves, not through “ENCOURAGEMENT”.
Do you really believe China ’s share market is better than US share market? Without transparent system, you think China ’s market treat players fairer than US market? No problem. It is your opinion and I cannot deny it. Today, a lot of Chinese still believe that communism is better than democratic; I cannot deny them as well. This is personal choice.
Today’s Chinese share market has 100 million players (not investors). Among them, how many know what are they doing? How many of them did understand the mechanism? How many of them did check the performance and background of the company which they invested on? Chinese market is good today because everybody is BUY BUY BUY. The share price is shooting up to the level which is beyond its actual market value. If you did check their EPS and P/E ratio, you know what I am talking about. Is a Chinese unknown company has better P/E ratio than Microsoft? Or General Motor? I tell you there are a lot. If this is a good market for you, wish you make a good profit.
By the way, so-called control is not trying to protect the investors. What happens in dark cannot be seen by everybody but a lot of people like to contribute their money. Even though China is a communism country, the people have right to decide their portfolio. Let’s see who can make some quick profit.
Protecting is the action, manipulation is the strategy. If you want to insist this is not a manipulation, I have no comment.
Buyers shall responsible to ensure the safety of the goods they bought? This is a new theory for me. Ha Ha Ha. Please read again what my dustbin food is referring to before you make your comment. Since you are also with financial background, I think you know what I am shooting at.
Do you think communism is better or democratic is better? Do you think police can detain anybody is better or police cannot detain anybody is better? If either way is better, why so many countries still adopt the reversed way? Health and happy environment? It only happens in Utopia. How many politicians are thinking of their country man when it may affect their self-interest?
In democratic country where we have far transparency and systematic control like Taiwan , corruption is still happening. Can I believe a communism country with minimum transparency and control is giving the citizen a health and happy environment? Anyway, you can believe it.
ISO? Corruption? Are you sure? How about annual audit? Annual corruption? Do you work in ISO environment before? Do you apply for ISO before? I don’t know where your statistic is came from but I cannot agree with you. Make the application process easier with some lubricant, I think it is possible. Corruption - SGS? Out of my imagination.
Under ISO, transparency is applicable for documentation system and operation process. ISO is focusing on process and system setup transparency, not confidentiality exposure. Who tells you that confidential information needs to be published? It is applicable only for listed company. Perhaps my presentation method has misled you. We did both anyway.
China = world richest country compared to China = world richest citizen, I prefer rich citizen. What do you mean by world richest country? 800 million of farmers lived under severe condition and only fortune controlled by very small percentage of political conglomerate? We have plenty of Chinese colleagues in the group. I know what’s going on in China . If we talk about 1.3 billion people’s GDP, it is a huge amount. If we talk about individual income, especially those not stay at the east coast, it is a pity amount. You can check from internet to double confirm.
Malaysia vs China ? Both of them are a country, a member of UN, full of bureaucracy and monopolized by political conglomerates. So, to certain extent they are similar to each other. By the way, unless you are USA , there is no second stone in the world at this moment.
Compared to Jesus theory, I think scientific theory at least able to be opened for discussion. Same comment applied to communism and democratic. Those can be opened for discussion tells me that it is at least better than those needs to be hidden at the dark.
At the end, you are in the business. I respect your professionalism. I am doing some business as well. Therefore, I can understand your positioning. By the way, I am not in your customer list. If necessary, our Global Procurement will contact you.
Time really important to produce a good sheet but not shit~ I hope Mr.Shaker hasn't go throught my previous shit~
“GUESSWORK” gave by you at previous comment. I think you like it a lot.
I seldom pay attention on penny index like China B,Nasdaq(US), Second board&Mesdaq(Malaysia).Even they are contributed to financial market,i prefer Main Index~
I never said everything can be control,if everything under control all the time,that is called as MANIPULATION,the word you like most~
The stamp duty reduction will be helpful to financial reform and stability,even that is not the best solution,that is a kind of market strategic or control. That is term of improving the valuation or economic prospects.
Do you know ENCOURAGEMENT CAN BRING CONFIDENCE?
We can engage in the market if the SCI slipped below 3,200. SCI plunged around 40% since November 2007. I think is time to pick up some China's fund now~
You like to talk about EQUAL,so i think you are communism supporter.Under communism system, hawker same as doctor,they are capital-sharing under one society. Under democratic,everyone got personal right to voice,vote and etc,but they are not capital-sharing.So,which is more EQUALIZE?
It is impossible for everyone to read 5 years annual reports for just a single company to find out if it is a valueable company. Not everyone able to dig deep into the income statements and balance sheets to calculate the intrinsic value of the company and figure out if it is selling at a discount. How many companies show their real value in income statement and balance sheets? You may be trap of the WONDERFUL NET PROFIT. 10 different guys reading the same 10 annual reports can come out with 10 totally DIFFERENT CONCLUSIONS on whether it is a good company or a bad company. 100 different guys trying to calculate its intrinsic value and they can get 100 DIFFERENT ANSWERS. There is no exact answer! You will only know who is right and wrong after years has passed and the future performance of the company and its stock price becomes history.
There are 2 views of PER: i) The higher PER,the greater investor confidence (ii) The higher PER,the higher risk. If you are risk taker,you can choose the high PER company~ After involve in market for few years, EPS and PER are not my reference again. As a speculator,I prefer RSI to PER~
Then you are agreed seller shall ensure the safety of the goods,right? As a importer,they can be buyer & seller.
I NEVER SAID USER MUST ENSURE THE SAFETY OF THE GOODS they bought(unless you are really got comsumer civilazation).
BUYER NOT DEFINITELY USER. If you buy condom, no need to ensure the safety,because buyer=user.
Which country really can categorize as democratic? US? With all the freedoms given, it exposes to loopholes that benefit subversive activity like terrorists, identity theft, lawsuits . These lawsuits are used to raise money for terrorist activities. Every law, every action, every war decided by majority rules??? Then what happen to US attacked Iraq to occupy their production~oil?
Taiwan in systematic control? Are you sure? I just can accept Taiwan is SUPER TRANSPARENCEY until they are naked in front public.Maybe you like to see a naked person run in front you,since you like transparency so much~
Malaysia Government hasn't enforced ISO to listed company,as a result,my previous company is safe for ISO(In Shit Operation).I can't deny you got WONDERFUL UNDERSTANDING AND DEFINITION of ISO,so what? Can you list another 3advantages of ISO except systematic and transperancy? Optimum profit and quality proven? Are you sure ISO really can optimum profit for a company? Each company got their own investment portfolio,just like you support original product,i am support copycat product.Each product got its own market.I got no objection
of your market view~
Malaysia Government catch up with ISO trend now. Do you feel the “working quality” from them after implement of ISO?
According to data from NBS,China's GDP ranking fourth in the world,after US,Japan and Germany.However ranking lowly 110th per capita GDP,only 16% of US. Korea also at the same situation as China on year 1980an,but Korea can reach 1/3 of capita GDP of US now,Korea can make it,China also can make it(since you said every country,every life is equal)
Malay vs Chinese,both are human, complete with brain and body,are they similar? If you think they are similar, I got no objection,that is your view.
If you can get Global Procurement to contact me, you are very welcome. I will thanks for giving me a “BIG FISH”
Late reply is highly regretted. I got several task works to pay attention on which caused to delay.
Instead of line by line argue on something without fact, it is better to focus on something can be proved.
During my last view, I remember you commented a lot on ISO, need to pay money etc. I have prepared answer for it but when I have a look just now, it has been amended.
You points included listed company spent money to “buy” ISO, difficulty in application process etc.
Is it possible to put back your old comment? ISO can be debated because it can be supported with proof.
Regarding investment portfolio, control / manipulation / encouraging……………., all depend on individual perspective. No result will be achieved. Need to stop.
I strongly concluded that CNY will be continually strengthening for next 2 years and we have hedged all our CNY expenditure. This is my action. If you think the other way round, put in your action and let’s wait.
In term of financial statement understanding, the 100 different answers are degree of profitability / potential / healthiness. If a company with low assets and high liabilities, I don’t think anybody will say that this is a good company and want to put in all his money. Mostly he can comment risk / potential associated to the company. By the way, I didn’t expect everybody can interpret full financial statement. However, if you know nothing and bother nothing, then you blindly invest, this is gambling. Of course we good 100 million of gamblers in China . Actually, in term of professionalism, the investors shall seek for financial consultation if they don’t know instead of concluded that most people also don’t know and I don’t have to know.
I don’t want to argue on Taiwan . I worked there for sometimes but we cannot get any result out of this topic. Same comment on democracy. If Chinese thinks that China is better than USA , I respect their comment. However, I just doubt why so many capable Chinese hurries to leave China ?
Mr.Shaker, welcome back!
Talent is cheaper than table salt.What separates the talented individual from the successful one is a lot of hard work. I hope you are not doing hard work.
The fact with proof can categorize as history. I don’t like to discuss about history. I prefer to do prediction . Besides,“Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth”
Even I had removed my previous comment,Mr.Shaker still can post your opinion.If your points are reasonable and can increase my pocket quality,sure I will appreciate a lot. I never deny ISO has a lot of advantages, but you can’t guarantee everyone can treat it as “ advantages”. You like papaya and put it as your favourite fruit, but you can’t make everyone to like papaya also.
I did mentioned before,I just a speculator, I never fall in love with my investment tool, I only treat it as money making tool. We need to change our tool from time to time,base on market trend. I started collect US dollar since it dropped below 3.15 , now is time for me to release,even only get 3% appreciation within 2 months, more than enough if compare to Malaysia’s FD interest rate. I just suggested to be a smart speculator to beat inflation nowadays, get the hell out of cash. Cash is certainly not a store of value.
I am not agree with your point, that nobody willing to put their fund in company with low assets and high liabilities. If the company still got potential to grow, that mean still got chance to appreciate.They just need a smart management to overturn the situation. The company with good reputation,wonderful financial report, is it show a guarantee to investor? Then how to explain for Citigroup and Merrill Lynch performance? Both reported loss of USD10-15 billions on January 2008.
That’s right if we can seek a good financial consultant, but can you teach me how to categorize them as professional financial consultant? Lately, that was a famous mutual fund manager reported failure in his investment(I forgot his name),even he had more than 30 years good performance and experience. So what?
Many capable Chinese hurries to leave China? Are you sure? Can give some example?
This is new for me. I remember you attacked a lot on my FORECAST. Today you are the supporter of PREDICT?
Anyway, let’s stop subjective dispute which cannot come to any conclusion.
I didn’t force anybody to accept ISO. That’s why I did respect your earlier comment. However, we can come to conclusion on this. So I hope you don’t mind to put back your earlier comment, especially your previous listed company pays ISO organization. I got SGS representatives with me here.
Past successful experiences shouldn’t be used to justify our comment. I hedged EUR vs. US$ when it is 3.2. I hedged US$ vs. RM when it is 3.8. Is this telling you all my comments are valid? For me, the answer is not. I don’t want to call myself lucky but at least I know that my initial purpose is to minimize risk instead of making profit. It just likes buying insurance only. More importantly, this is case by case issue. You succeed here but you may fail there. There is no guarantee.
By the way, if you make sure profit from FOREX and share market, perhaps you should concentrate because this talent cannot be found in this world.
Smart management? How to decide? An investor can do so? Anyway, you are a risk taker, you may try. For someone who has many portfolios, I don’t think he will take this degree of risk. For example, nearly bankrupt company, dare you buy their share? It is very cheap and the return is crazily high. I wouldn’t take this kind of risk.
By the way, if your assets are US$1 million and your liabilities are US$10 million, you want to handicapped yourself with this natural borne unhealthy “baby”? Citibank’s assets are very much lower than liabilities, are you sure? Financial statement losses are understandable and acceptable to certain extent but a very unhealthy Balance Sheet disallows you from raising loan, public investment, bonds and whatsoever. Perhaps your successes told something different. Then you are a real genius.
That’s why I say there is no guaranteed profit making investment. The difference between a consultant and a conman is that the consultant will give you commitment and he needs to achieve it in order to sustain his reputation. You invited PWC to be your auditor, you feel comfortable with their quality? Or you preferred an unknown individual? You can talk about the fee for sure. I didn’t say that PWC guaranteed your book will be 100% clean but perhaps 95%. If this is compared to 0%, I will pay more.
You don’t know Chinese tried like hell to leave China ? Leave this point. If I continues, I am attacking my own race in China. You walk around more in many countries and you will see it.
If I did attacked on your forecast,that mean I am not agreed with your forecast. But I never confuse of my own predicition. We advance on our journey only when we face our goal,when we are confident an believe we are going to win out.
I want to stop about ISO argument, that was a history for me. Maybe I can ask my friend to get your help when they face application problem. Since they need to make their business running, I believe they had paid a lump sum for that “shit” certificate.
I only can agree past successful cannot guarantee future performance, but not “past successful experience shouldn’t be used to justify our comment”. Warren Buffet and George Soros started with billion dollar fortunes? No no no, both started with nothing – and made billion-dollar fortunes solely by investing. Buffett buys bargain-priced stocks and businesses for cash – and likes to own them forever. Soros is renowned for his highly leveraged, quick-footed bets in the currency markets. This can proof got people with talent in stock market and FOREX, please make sense before gave comment(-->This talent cannot be found in this world)
If you only success 1/100 of your total investment, this called as luck. If you can success 70/100 of your investment,this called as talent. Come on,friend,give more confident on yourself. Nobody can give any guarantee of return.Involve in stock market or FOREX, we can say either profit or loss. That is different with color,got grey between black and white. Do not afraid of failed,then keep your cash in bank with low interest, even that is 100% safe.
Did I said Citigroup assets are much more lower than liabilities? Please read my point carefully. I just want to proof that, even excellent company like Citigroups and Merrill Lynn cannot guarantee for return.
Consultant will give you commitment? Are you sure? What kind of commitment he will give? What for to put our fund on their hand, let them bet for your luck, let them decide the growing on your investment portfolio? From all of your comments, I found that you have a strong background in financial, just lack of confident in manage your own investment profile. Come on, friend, just believe of your own forecast, to control own assets. I can’t deny some of the jobs need advise from consultant, but not for personal investment portfolio.
Maybe the Chinese you met are capable and like to migrate, but those i met are Patriot and like to contribute to China.
That’s the reason why I said we shall debate on something less subjective and fact-oriented. If not, we end up with no result and roll on and on with fact.
As I mentioned, ISO is something can be supported with fact. If we expect some outcomes from our debate, this is a good topic. Anyway, it is your call.
One side you mentioned that even the most experienced market trader can suffered a big loss, the other side you try to stress that certain persons are gifted to make money in market trading; I am getting confused with this kind of turnaround without absolute fact to base on. I put a simple case – Disneyland . They are so-called someone who can combined magic and maximum profit. How about their strategy in Tokyo ? How about their strategy in Paris ? Again I put myself back into something has no solid fact, forget it.
Hedging is my daily activities. When I involved more and the amount builds up, I think I am really nobody. Perhaps you are at different level where you can talk about 70% success. For me, the initial motive is still the same, assurance.
Again, it is a contrary of your earlier point. Did Citigroups and Merrill Lynn secure 70% success rate? I think they did. So, they are under your earlier paragraph class. If your earlier point did stand, why you talk about guarantee of commitment now? If 70% is your standard, let’s stick to it. Those can achieve 70%, they pass. Those not, they fail. Among those pass, the one who is the highest most likely is the best. Isn’t it? I dare to bet on drug smugglers.
About myself, I have to say that I thought I am quite good long long time ago. Now, it ends up that I am only a normal human being, with no talent. I can’t complain too much. I have businesses continuously sucked off my pocket and family to support, it is my destiny to be a normal human being.
I need to stop on Chinese topic. I am a Chinese as well. Good or bad, I share their glory and pain.
History always show contrary. That’s why I don’t like to mention about history. But only history can give the FACT,the word you like most. As we know,everything got 2 sides~advantages and disadvantages,that ‘s why we never walk away from contrary or argument. There is no comparison between that which is lost by not succeeding and that lost by not trying. Now we got succeeding and trying,that’s another reason why contrary or comparison happen.
We all dreams, we do not understand our dreams, yet we act as if nothing strange goes on in our sleep mind. Market traders just like our dreams, we cannot conclude their capability yet there is nothing unusual happen.
Do you know why drug smugglers can be so successful? They got talent? Good management leader? Maybe….But I believe mainly cause by corrupted government.
What is your meaning by normal human being? Get paid from paycheck to paycheck? That’s good if you are healthy always. As you mentioned before, accident/disaster cannot be prevented, paycheck stop when hand stop. If can plan an investment portfolio which able to bring compounding income, why not? You may ask how to ensure the compounding income, I can’t say that is no risk. Base on your strong financial background, I believe you are smart enough to do your own planning, and never let your money value depreciate in FD.
When we long for life without difficulties, remind us that oaks grow strong in contrary winds and diamonds are made under pressure.
Again and again we circulate ourselves in a circle. Turn and turn. If I am a normal clerical staff with monthly income of RM1k, perhaps I can fight a better case.
Your smugglers topic is quite interesting. Who tells you that they are successful? You know how many “workers” in each conglomerate? How many died in between the process? How many jailed in between the process? How many suffered in between the process? Talent – I suppose you mean the guts and networking. Those international dealers shall be comparable to MNC. Good management leader – I suppose you refer to the “TOP MANAGEMENT”. For sure they are. Can you imagine managing a gang of rifle carriers? I think there is nothing to do much with corruption because this is part of the process, not the cause or consequence. In Finland which is the world least corrupted country, you see drug addicts there? You did. You see drug there? You did. Come to the end, it’s all about business. The main reason behind is high margin regardless the country is corrupt or not. Of course corruption decides level of difficulty to run their business.
An executive, who made RM100k per annum, has pension fund and covered by group policy insurance considered safe for you? By the way, what if under extreme case where someone loses his hand and his portfolio? Unless you say they shall invest in unit trust but this is not far away from FD. Or he shall hedge interest rate and mobilize his fund cross country? The scale is too big.
I make some small salary to support my family living. I hope I can continue for a longer time.
When we see the glory of a general, remember the corpses under his feet. Will I be the general? I doubt it. So, I try to avoid from being a corpse.
Safe investment – Insurance, unit trust, FD and long term shareholding are okay for me. More than this, I have less capability to manage.
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